Comments on: Foreign Policy & Risk Management

By: Tom

Tom — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 13:09:54 +0000

I agree with you, Matt. Any decision is a process – from choosing a meal at a fast food restaurant drive-through to creating strategy. I think most business types may get hung up on the mis-perception that process means slow, formal and onerous. I’m not a big fan of the word ‘paradigm’, but I think you’ve hit on one of the big ones out there… Thanks for taking me up on the dare!

By: Tom

Tom — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 13:02:11 +0000

Great point, Professor. I have never run across a business exec who consciously tries to manage anything more than event-driven risks. Another symptom of our short-term goal driven business world, perhaps. The thought of doing scenario generation is somewhat overwhelming, but in reality it’s just a sequence of risk events, isn’t it? I know I need to do a better job on this aspect myself. Thanks.

By: Matt Sims

Matt Sims — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 07:11:53 +0000

See the parallel Tom, and completely agree.

The challenge is getting the cowboys of the business world (shoot first, ask questions later) to recognize that decisions are not events, but in fact processes that can be managed and improved like any other in the business.

It’s changing behaviours, and that is always challenging.

Thanks for the dare Tom, look forward to reading more of your posts.

Matt

By: professor pinch

professor pinch — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 03:15:03 +0000

You beat me to one of my next posts! Stratfor is a great resource.

And yes, you’re spot on. I like to think in the context of scenario generation (or scen gen), looking at not just the immediate effect, but potential knock-ons and secondary impacts. You string those events together and you have a scenario. It may be a low-probability event, but those usually have a very high severity.

The knock-on effects worry me more than the immediate impact of event-driven risks. Because an event is usually itself a symptom of some underlying issue that went unattended/unaddressed.

By: Thomas M. Bragg

Thomas M. Bragg — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 21:55:50 +0000

Q: How are foreign policy and #smallbusiness alike? A: #RiskManagement is critical to both http://bit.ly/4Ut4jn

By: Thomas M. Bragg

Thomas M. Bragg — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 16:33:51 +0000

My latest blog post – Foreign Policy & #RiskManagement http://bit.ly/4Ut4jn – and how it applies to #smallbusiness

By: Craig Rowe

Craig Rowe — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 15:07:39 +0000

RT @tombragg: Great example of #RiskManagement in foreign policy http://ow.ly/OzSe #smallbusiness

By: Tom

Tom — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 15:00:19 +0000

Thanks for the comment, Keith. Maybe the “risks getting buried in the politics” is a primary reason for the seemingly perpetual conflict between the military/intelligence services and the legislators – at least in the U.S. Does the same conflict exist in the UK?

By: Keith Baxter

Keith Baxter — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 14:46:28 +0000

Couldn’t agree more. All governments (should) have a strategy. That strategy is based on a set of assumptions. The risk to those assumptions, when assessed by all key stakeholders, should gives an objective (certainly rigorous) picture of the strategic risks faced. Prioritised appropriately, the action plans should be clear.

I think the problem is that the real risks get burried in politics and a formal risk management process makes that more difficult at least!

By: Keith Baxter

Keith Baxter — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 14:18:55 +0000

RT @tombragg: Great example of #RiskManagement in foreign policy http://bit.ly/4Ut4jn #smallbusiness