Thomas M. Bragg on Business Risk Management

My girlfriend Amy has a home-based, small business, working as a professional wedding and portrait photographer (one of the best in my very-biased opinion, but check out her site and judge for yourself.) I work with Amy as a PT photographer on weekends and also help her out on the business side of things. As I’ve learned the in’s and out’s of a home-based, single person business, I’ve been paying attention to its similarities and differences in terms of risk management. Read the rest of this entry »

I regularly read Stratfor’s Geopolitical Weekly. It’s a fascinating glimpse into the world of foreign policy risk management. Take this week’s issue for example. George Friedman analyzes the stalemate between the U.S. and Iran over Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

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In the article, George writes about an Iranian incursion into Iraqi territory (which I hadn’t even heard about) and how it relates to Iran’s strategy for dealing with the U.S. demand to abandon its nuclear program. He provides a detailed analysis of the situation, the risks to each country, the possible consequences and the potential options for how each country might respond to those risks. Does the process sound familiar? It should. It’s the risk management process we’ve been talking about – identify risks, evaluate risks and plan for risks.

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Every time I read one of Stratfor’s articles, I can’t help but wonder how many analysts are working for the U.S. government on these types of analyses. I’m sure the number would scare me. And then I think about how many analysts are working for the other major countries of the world. No doubt it is a very large number indeed – a good thing in my opinion. I shudder at the thought of politicians making world-changing decisions based on gut-feel.

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Risk management plays a critical role in global life and the interactions between countries. It should play a critical role in your business life and the interactions with your stakeholders (customers, employees, financiers, et al.). The process is exactly the same, only the sophistication of the evaluation techniques differ. The decisions the world’s politicians make could change the world for all of us. The decisions you make in your business are world-changing for you and your stakeholders (granted, a smaller scale, but pretty damn important to your stakeholders, don’t you think?). Shouldn’t those decisions get the benefit of the same risk management process?

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Do you see the parallel? Do you agree or disagree? I dare you to share your opinion….

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p.s. I promise to get back to the how-to’s of the risk management process – how to plan for your risks – next week.

I learned a lesson this week. I implemented new technologies (yeah, that’s right – plural) and suffered some embarrassment because I didn’t manage the risks well. Here’s what went down.. Read the rest of this entry »

If you will allow me to indulge, I’d like to depart a bit from my focus on business risk management. Risk management isn’t limited to business. What types of risk do you face in your personal life? In November I wrote a post titled “3 Categories of Risk“. I should have been a little more specific. In that post I was talking about categories of business risk. But what about personal risk? Here are some general categories that come to mind, in no particular order…

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I feel like I’m procrastinating. I finished my initial series on step one of the risk management process – identifying risk. Now the plan is to move into writing about step two – evaluating the risks. I’ll get there, but I’ve got one more topic I want to address. Let’s talk about the traits of world class business risk management…

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I’ve been thinking about these for about a week now.  The idea was triggered by a comment exchange with Kristen on my last post. We talked about “formal” process vs. “formalized” process. Kristen is absolutely correct that risk management needs to be formalized – meaning done in a proper and regular form. But I don’t think it needs to be “formal” – using the definition “stiffly ceremonious, burdensome or onerous”. I know it’s semantics, but the difference in perception will be the difference between effective execution and just going through the motions.

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That exchange about a specific trait got me thinking about what other traits would characterize world class business risk management.  Here’s what I’ve come up with.

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I was thrilled to read Tim Berry’s November 12 post in his Planning Startups Stories blog. He was talking about 5 basic entrepreneurship skills that business schools don’t teach. One of the skills Tim listed was risk management. He wrote:

I don’t mean the technical side of risk management. Business schools are generally excellent at teaching the numbers and analysis of risk, mathematical tools to evaluate the time value of money, for example, and formulas to compare technical investment risk like the internal rate of return (IRR).

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I do mean living with risk. Not betting things you can’t afford to lose. How to sleep at night when your customers owe you enough to destroy you simply by failing to pay what they owe. How to figure out which spend is a reasonable risk for generating a future payback, and which isn’t. How it feels to take a second mortgage, or how it feels to tell a graduating high-school senior with a great record that there isn’t enough money for the college he or she has earned.

The risks Tim described are what I’ve termed “Business Risk” (creative, eh?).  Business risk management includes more than insurance and hedges. It is the continuous, active consideration and planning for all of the potential good and bad things that could happen to your business. The process doesn’t have to be formal or sophisticated. Expensive software and consultants aren’t required. Managing business risk is a simple process. But, it’s a simple process that consumes entrepreneurs (whether they realize it or not) and should consume owners/managers of established businesses. In fact, maybe the day-to-day effort invested in risk management is what defines the “entrepreneurial spirit”.

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How do you feel about that last statement? Agree? Disagree? Tell me why.

I was working on my next post – 3 Categories of Risk – but got sidetracked by Naomi Dunford’s latest . It got me thinking. In my first post, I pledged the following;

I commit to do my best to engage you and be engaged. I will strive to earn your trust and trust you. I will endeavor to write things that you may want to pass along and discuss with others.

After reading Naomi’s post and all the comments, I realized that I’m not doing a very good job at living up to my commitment. Sure, I’m covering the subject matter in a very businesslike manner. But, if I want to engage you and earn your trust there needs to be more sharing - more than the bio, more than the LinkedIn profile and more than an occasional tweet…

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So what’s in it for me? Why am I bothering with writing a blog? There’s no advertising. I’m not soliciting consulting gigs or peddling the next great risk management toolset. What’s the motivation?

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“How does somebody develop a passion for business risk management?”, one might ask. Well, let’s just say that I  learned its importance the hard (read “expensive”) way.

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My partner, Phil, and I started a retail liquor store in our hometown – a small town in eastern Iowa. We did our research. There was a  limited local supply – only the town’s grocery store offered a very sparse selection of liqour, beer and wine with zero customer service. Our interviews with competitors, potential customers and suppliers all indicated that there was a solid market for the business as long as the prices were reasonable. We wrote a kick-ass business plan (”Best I’ve ever read”, said the banker), got our financing, set up our space and opened the business.

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